They separated depth effects from the horizontal 2D space, and showed that such a separable 3D model fits observations significantly better than the 2D model. ( 2018) applied a 3D space–time ETAS model in the Kanto region. 1), their interactions, and hence forecasting of the occurrence of inter-plate and intraplate earthquakes, are too complex for approaches such as the 2D space–time epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models, as proposed by Ogata ( 2011), which ignores the depths of earthquakes. Because three tectonic plates meet beneath Kanto Plain (see Fig. The Kanto region urgently requires a 3D short- and medium-term seismicity forecasting model. However, there has been little prior study of the spatial distribution of event probabilities associated with such a forecast. Utsu 2002), assumption of a stationary temporal Poisson process, and application of the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) law in the focal area. This estimate is based on earthquake records since 1885 (Utsu 1982), a number of historical disastrous earthquakes (e.g. The estimated occurrence probability of such an earthquake, during the next 30 years, is 70–80%. The dense population of the Tokyo metropolis prompted the government’s Earthquake Research Committee ( 2004) to predict, and subsequently update, the long-term probability of an M7 class earthquake beneath the southern Kanto Plain.
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